Sideways Market

contract e-mini S&P, data 15 decembrie 2010

O figura care nu a fost " ca la carte" in sensul ca evolutia pretului dupa ce a iesit din formatia head&sholders nu a atins nivelul 1225.5 cat ar fi trebuie ca sa fie o evolutie perfecta ( inaltimea dintre varful capului si baza umerilor sa fie egala cu downtrend`ul dupa iesirea din figura);

Un trader bine capitalizat, impulsiv care shorta din varful umarului stang, facea un profit frumusel; un trader conservator care shorta dupa ce pretul iesea din aceasta formatie, ramanea

"sifonat" de comisioane daca avea asteptari mari de la evolutie, daca nu marca ceva castiguri la timp, pentru ca dupa cum se vede pretul este intors in aceeasi zona de congestie.

Vedem ca se creeaza si tensiune in piata prin lower highs si higher lows, adica zona de batalie dintre bulls&bears este tot mai mica si mai stransa, selleri shortand pretul inainte sa ajunga la ultimul maxim, iar buy`ieri cumparand inainte sa ajunga la ultimul minim.

In mod normal iesirea pretului din aceasta zona decide si castigatorii bataliei si astfel nascandu-se un nou trend crescator sau descrescator, dar avand in vedere lichiditatea cu care iese pretul din aceasta zona, s-ar putea sa ne asteptam la surprize;

Best September since 1939

What a September it’s turning out to be! With only two trading sessions left, the Dow is up 8.4% for the month.

Assuming that the market remains this high at month end, it will go down in the record books as the best September in more than 70 years. You have to go back to 1939 to find a September with a bigger percentage increase: In September of that year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,810, -48.52, -0.45%) produced a 13.5% return.

Given September’s reputation as being by far the worst for the stock market, there are any of a number of important investment lessons to draw from the stock market’s surprising strength this month.

The first: Averages are not guarantees, even when those averages are as statistically significant as September’s has been. This might strike you as utterly obvious, but it’s worth repeating nonetheless. That’s because it’s all too easy when focusing on averages to gloss over the large variance in the individual results.

For example, even though September has been an awful month on average for the stock market, the month has nevertheless produced a gain 42% of the time since the Dow was created in 1896 (in contrast to a 59% gain rate for all other months). Despite being on average a loser, in other words, the stock market in the past has still risen in more than 4 out of every 10 Septembers.

This leads to a corollary: In order to get your odds of winning as close as possible to 100%, you need to bet on a pattern many times.

Imagine being a card counter in blackjack. If you’re a good one, the odds of your beating the casino eventually become tilted in your favor. But, no matter how good you are, you still have no guarantee of winning any given round. The only way to get any reasonable assurance of winning is to play many rounds.

How many? The rule of thumb I remember from Statistics 101 is 30.

What this means in the case of September: Assuming the future is like the past, you have good odds of being a winner only if you were to bet that the stock market will on average be a loser during the next 30 Septembers.

That’s an awfully long time to wait if you’re interested in instant gratification. But what we want, and what the odds are objectively, are two very different things.

This leads to yet another corollary as well: One data point, even an outlier as impressive as the stock market’s gain this September, does not make a pattern. Nor can it reverse a long-standing trend.

Another important lesson has to do with how past success can sabotage a stock market pattern. If enough investors know about a pattern, they will try to get a jump-start on it and, in the process, cause the pattern to disappear.

This may be one of the reasons why August produced a loss for the stock market, despite historically being one of the better months. It’s entirely possible that many traders sold stocks in August in order to sidestep September, thereby transferring September’s loss into August.

The bottom line? Extrapolating the stock market’s past into the future is tricky at best: Even when a previously very strong pattern hasn’t been discounted away by shrewd investors, there is no guarantee that it will work the next time around. And when it doesn’t work, there is no way in the moment to know if the pattern has permanently stopped working.

In the meantime, though, we can all celebrate the unexpectedly good news that the stock market has brought us this September.

Wall St expected to lift this week

NEW YORK - If the US Federal Reserve's view of the economy brightens by just a glimmer next week, it could push the stock market above its four-month trading range.

The S&P 500 closed the week at the higher end of that range, just below 1,130. Some chartists see a break above it as presaging a test of the year's highs.

But options trading suggests some see 1,130 as the market's ceiling and are protecting their portfolios against a decline.

Other investors see the Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting as the turning point that stocks have been searching for to break out of the range with conviction.

"Going up to the close on Tuesday, we could see a little bit of enthusiasm, and perhaps it could be the catalyst that could push us above 1,130 on the S&P," Wells Fargo Funds Management chief portfolio strategist Brian Jacobsen said.

In late August, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said he would need to see a significant deterioration in economic conditions before easing monetary conditions further. Recent data, including a stronger-than-expected reading on private-sector jobs growth, could prevent further action from the Fed.

If the Fed does move, people "wouldn't interpret it as a bad sign (for the economy) but as the Fed being vigilant in trying to keep this recovery going," Mr Jacobsen said.

Most analysts don't see the Fed moving in that direction immediately, but Mr Jacobsen said any signal will be welcome.

"It could be the impetus that's needed to push people out of bonds and into stocks, finally," he said.

All eyes on technicals

Even with stocks losing a bit of momentum as some technical indicators suggest, the S&P 500 seems poised to move above 1,130. Some chartists see breaking that level as a harbinger for future gains, with overhead resistance not seen until 1,173 and then at the year's high near 1,220.

Having pierced 1,130 three times in the last three months, the level is garnering attention even from investors who are more focused on fundamentals than technical analysis.

"Whenever economic uncertainty bubbles up, that's when technicals take over in terms of what market participants look for," USAA vice president of equity investments Wasif Latif said.

"A lot of people have been looking at 1,130 and we look at it as a component because other people are acting on it."

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.4 per cent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 3.3 per cent.

Options traders hedging bets

The CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, continued to show high volume as investors were bracing for volatility.

"After VIX September options expired on Wednesday, I expected that index options activity to drop," Schwab Center for Financial Research director of trading and derivatives Randy Frederick said.

"But on the day, there was actually a big volume on puts and calls, suggesting that as soon as September contracts expired, they replaced the VIX contracts again for protection."

A large put spread was made on the S&P 500 index that suggested a substantial move lower in the short term, according to Chris McKhann, analyst at optionMonster.com.

Housing data all week long

In terms of economic data, next week's schedule has a daily dose of housing indicators. From the housing market index on Monday to housing starts on Tuesday, followed by existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Friday, investors will be able to get a clearer picture of a key sector that must improve before the economic recovery can really kick in.

"It's been so terrible lately that it doesn't have to be strength – just a sign of life in the housing market could be support for financial markets overall," Mr Jacobsen said.

DowJones index and bulls

Double Dip rumors wiped out

Double dip rumors wiped out by DowJones index CFD evolution, value index (10.4xx) that is very close from the open of the year (10.443) and also close from the open value of the month of August(10.514) value that if is pasted by the end of September, will develop a engulfing pattern, in a bullish trend wich means will be future bullish evolution.

DowJones CFD numbers evolution

Source : www.tradeville.eu platform

DowJones CFD chart evolution

Source : www.tradeville.eu platform

In Q3+Q4, Bulls will come back in markets

DowJones Index has less then 200 points to punch the bearish trend started in May 2010 and put bulls back to work, plus RSI indicator is helping (now at 58.245) because has more than 10 points untill overbought value.

DowJones index evolution

Source : online.wsj.com

Tehnically we are not that far from a bullish market, and fundamentals are helping to, from 35 reports that will come next week and influence the markets, 24 are forecasted better than last, wich means that fundamentally if analysts are not wrong , we have 68.57% chance to brake that bearish trend.

Report written by Scuturici Petru-Alexandru
ConfidentTrader Member Club

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Time is set by Romanian clock source: www.forexfactory.com

news and reactions

Slightly Bullish eur/usd 27.05.2010

Eur/usd daily double bottom

Posibiltate de inversare a trendului pe contractul spot eur/usd datorita figurii dobule bottom formata pe graficul daily; Siguranta va creste daca candle`ul ce reprezinta ziua de 27Mai2010 inchide peste pretul de 1.2370 deschiderea zilei anterioare.
Pe 4 ore schimbarea de trend deja a inceput, se poate observa prin figura Bullish Engulfing, dar si aici va capata siguranta abia dupa ce va urca mai sus de T1.

Eur/Usd chart 4hour engulfing pattern

Europa inca in criza ?!?

Astazi 7 aprilie, datele de la eurostat arata ca europaa inca

se zbate sa ramana in afara crizei din punct de vedere tehnic.

Grafic cu Produsul intern brut al europei. Click pentru a mari imaginea

T = trimestru

09 = anul 2009

10 = anul 2010

Astazi 7 aprilie datele despre trimestrul doi din 2010(T2.10) au aratat ca europa inca este pe marginea prapastiei pe care tocmai a urcat-o.

Analisiti se asteptau ca produsul intern brut al europei sa indice o modesta apreciere de 0.1% pe primele trei luni ale anului 2010 in comparatie cu ultimul trimestru din 2009, dar se pare ca cifrele economice europene sunt lipsite de modestie, T2.10 fiind 0% .

Comparat an la an economia europei s-a depreciat cu 2.2% mai mult

cu un procent decat estimase biroul european de statistica; doar exporturile

si cresterea stocurilor au ajutat zona euro sa se mentina pe linia de plutire

si a evita dezastru de inca un trimestru negativ care ar fi lasat loc speculatiilor

de valul numarul doi al crizei sau inca o recesiune.

Datele de astazi au tinut atat Fankfurt cat si Londra si Paris pe teritoriu

negativ dar pana in -0.50% , doar indicele european reusea sa se mentina

in teritoriu pozitiv dar aproape de 0%.

Datele despre produsul intern brut in europa.

Click pe imagine pentru a mari imaginea.

un an de piata bullish

click pe imagine pentru a mari

9martie un an de piata bullish pentru pietele americane,
Dow Jones anul trecut pe 9 martie ajungea la minimul anului
la o valoare de 6440, pana astazi apreciindu-se cu peste 60% .
In tot acest timp institutiile statului american a sustinut piata financiara
preluand active toxice si sprijinind colosi financiari.

Evolutie ianuarie Dow Jones Industrial Average

Prima luna a anului 2010 aduce scaderi in pietele bursiere din america, a doua de la inceputul pietei de tip bull (bull market = piata dominata de cumparatori) inceputa in martie anul trecut, prima fiind in luna iunie anul trecut atunci cand Dow Jones Industrial Average s-a depreciat cu 170 de puncte;
Istoria ne arata ca atunci cand luna ianuarie are deprecrieri atunci si restul de 11 luni vor avea performante slabe.
Potrivit datelor furnizate de Ned Davis Research, in in care indicele a crescut in luna ianuarie, mediana de apreciere pentru restul anului a fost de 10.4%, in timp ce in anii cand indicele a scazut in luna ianuarie, mediana de apreciere pentru restul anului a fost de doar 0.28%;
Peter A. McKay de la Wall Street Journal sustine ca multi dintre traderi se intreaba daca nu aprecerile de pe DJIA de 20% in ultimul an nu au fost ca acestia au mizat mult prea devreme pe revenirea economiei americane.

Februarie

Pentru luna februarie voi aduce in atentie actiunea Wells Fargo & Company.

Wells Fargo & Company

Pretul actual al acestei actiuni este 28.43$ , maximul lunii ianuarie a fost atins in data de 7 ianuarie 29.43$ iar minimul a fost atins in prima zi de tranzactionare a acestei luni in data de 4 ianuarie 26.82$.


4ianuarie-28ianuarie

Ultimele stiri ale acestei companii au fost :

Immigrants learn about tax rules

istockAnalyst.com - Jan 30, 2010

Jan. 29--The Internal Revenue Service does not report tax returns to the immigration department, although sometimes immigration officials will review tax information. However, if someone is ...

Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Fannie Mae, MGIC, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and JC Penney

Business Wire - Jan 29, 2010

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and ...

Mai multe stiri despre aceasta companie putei afla la acest link .

Urmatoarele evenimente :


Mai multe despre acestea puteti citi la acest link .

Dupa cum se vede de pe graficul lunii ianuarie un trend descrescator s-a format, dar acesta este doar un val secundar, trendul principal fiind crescator din luna martie 09 ca restul sectorului financiar si indexul DowJones;



In luna ianuarie pretul s-a apreciat cu 5.21%. MACD si Exponential Moving Avrages indica faptul ca si in luna februarie pretul se va aprecia, insa indicatorul RSI are valoarea de 44.44 fiind intr-un trend descrescator, probabil pretul avand parte la inceputul lunii februarie de alte scaderi pana indicatorul RSI ajunge la valoarea de 30 ca apoi sa isi continue apreciera care a inceput-o in luna martie anul trecut.

EMA: RSI :

Pretul indicat pentru a achzitiona actiuni la aceasta companie e 29.50$ cu o tinta de profit de 1,9$/actiune , profitand astfel de aprecierea pana la ultimul maxim de pe termen mediu de 31.51$ . Recomand sa se vanda inainte de aceste maxim in zona valorii de 31.40$.




Singurul motiv pentru care pretul acestei actiuni nu ar urma scenariul de mai sus , ar fi datorita discursurilor presedintelui Obama despre regularizarea sistemului financiar si al bancilor,
in continuare acest subiect este sensibil si trebuie urmarit cu atentie.

Miercuri 27 Ianuarie

Eur/usd formatiune Head&Sholders pe timeframe-ul
de 5 minute.

Bursele europene au scazut astazi in continuare din cauza ingrijorarii
din pietele asiatice asupra deciziei guvernului chinez de a restrictiona
creditarea.

Marti 26 Ianuarie 2010

Traderi au inceput pe tonus negativ datorita stirilor din china in care statul chinez anunta ca vrea sa limitieze creditarea.
Deficit bugetar la 1,35 trilioane de dolari , pretul caselor cu o scadere de 0.2% a lunii noiembrie comparativ cu luna octombrie si consumer confidence la maximul ultimor 16 luni, cu aceste stiri tranzactioneaza traderii pe piata bursiera americana ziua de marti 26 Ianuarie.
Scaderile din ultimele 4 zile au fost o oportunitate pentru a cumpara, dar multi au ezitat datorita zvonurilor despre salvarea American International Group de catre statul american.
Aurul e putin supravandut a spus Frank Lesh, broker si futures analyst la FuturePath Trading. La pretul de 1.080$ au aparut cumparatorii.

Video

Propunerile presedintelui Barack Obama aduc scaderi

22 ianuarie 2010 NYSE
Din cauza propunelor presedintelui american Barack Obama, ingrijoreaza traderi de pe bursele americane care marcheaza profiturile facute sustinute de cresterile de la inceputul anului pentru a proteja castigurile actuale.
Multi dintre analisti spun ca aceste regularizari ale sistemului financiar va taia din profiturile bancilor, aceste ingrijorari aducand culoarea rosie chiar si pe bursele europene in aceasta vineri.

MetaTrader 5 s-a lansat!!!

Compania MetaQuotes Software a anuntat inceperea testului public pentru noua generatie a cunoscutei platforme de tranzactionare MetaTrader, denumita MetaTrader 5 .

Testarea publica a platformei se va intinde pe mai multe luni, in mai multi pasi: pentru inceput terminalul va suporta doar perechile valutare, iar ulterior vor fi adaugate mai multe instrumente: contracte pe diferenta de pret, contracte futures, actiuni, optiuni, etc.
Interfata noului terminal va fi mai atractiva, iar indicatori si programele automatizate vor fi mai usor de implementat, deasemenea viteza va fi imbunatatita.

MetaTrader 5 Client Terminal (15 MB)


Cea mai importanta noutate implementata este posibilitatea de a vedea "Adancimea Pietei" - Depth of Market (DOM) . Aceasta optiune permite vizualizarea volumului de ordine pe mai multe nivele de pret, ceea ce pe forex in general nu se putea, fiind o piata descentralizata. Daca dorim sa efectuam o cumparare pe EurUsd si pe Ask sunt 10 loturi disponibile la pretul curent, vom sti ca daca dorim mai putin de 10 loturi ele vor fi executate la acel pret, iar daca dorim mai multe, loturile ce depasesc volumul disponibil la acel pret vor fi executate la nivelul urmator de pret - pasul minim de cotare. Cu cat piata este mai lichida, cu atat mai greu va fi de urmarit modificarile volumelor, fiind foarte rapide.
Astfel se vor inlatura recotarile si suspiciunile privind corectitudinea brokerilor.

Pe langa cele 4 ordine pending disponibile in MetaTrader 4 vor fi adaugate alte 2:
- Buy Stop Limit : este o combinatie intre buy stop cu buy limit - cand pretul Ask atinge o valoare specificata (peste pretul curent) imediat este plasat un ordin buy limit la nivelul mentionat in ordin.
- Sell Stop Limit : este o combinatie intre sell stop si sell limit - cand pretul Bid atinge o valoare specificata (sub pretul curent) imediat este plasat un ordin sell limit la nivelul mentionat in ordin.

Optiuni suplimentare de executie a ordinelor au fost adaugate:
- All or None : un ordin poate fi executat doar pentru volumul si pretul egal sau mai bun decat cel indicat in ordin. Daca nu este un volum disponibil in piata la acel pret sau mai bun ordinul nu va fi executat.
- Cancel Remains : traderul accepta ca ordinul sa fie executat pentru volumul maxim disponibil in piata la acel pret sau mai bun. Pentru volumul ramas nu vor fi plasate alte ordine.
- Return : traderul accepta ca ordinul sa fie executat pentru volumul maxim disponibil in piata la acel pret sau mai bun. Pentru volumul ramas se plaseaza un ordin la pretul specificat.

Ca aspect negativ pentru unii traderi, MetaTrader 5 nu permite existenta mai multor pozitii deschise simultan pentru un anumit instrument financiar pe un cont de tranzactionare. Ordinele pe acelasi instrument vor fi cumulate:
-daca avem o pozitie buy deschisa pe EurUsd si mai deschidem una sau mai multe in aceeasi directie, in terminal va aparea o singura pozitie pe EurUsd, cu 2 sau mai multe loturi, iar pretul de intrare va fi o medie a preturilor pozitiilor deschise.
- daca avem o pozitie buy deschisa pe EurUsd si deschidem una de vanzare, practic pozitia buy va fi inchisa, nu vom avea 2 pozitii deschise ca pana acum.
Astfel, generatia 5 a platformei se aliniaza noilor reguli americane ce interzic hedgingul sau pozitiile in lacat.

Orice trader poate testa noua platforma si poate trimite eventuale critici si sugestii pe forumul MQL4.

Prima zi de tranzactionare din 2010 pe verde.

Prima zi de tranzactionare din 2010, e verde.

Atat bursele asiatice, europene cat si cele de peste ocean sunt cu cresteri de peste 1%.

Craig Peckham equity trading strategist :

"We've all been waiting for the last couple of months for the green light to put more risk capital back in the marketplace."

Odata cu inceperea noului excercitiu economic din 2010 aversiunea la risc a crescut, iar acum majoritatea investitorilor incep sa cumpere, investind si o parte din banii care pana acum ii tineau in cont sau in aur sau alte marfuri care li se pareau mai sigure decat valorile mobiliare.

Traderi americani au vorba " asa cum merge prima zi din an asa merge toata luna, iar cum merge luna ianuarie asa merge tot anul", pesimisti spun ca Federal Reserve cumpara astazi in pietele financiare americane.

Stirea care ar sustine investiitile de astazi e stirea despre indicatorul productivitatii din america , care in luna decembrie a fost 55.9, mai mare decat erau asteptarile analistilor care preconizau indicatorul productivitatii la nivelul de 54.1.